To raise money, a club is selling 500 raffle tickets. Each ticket has a 5% chance of winning a prize. K’Lynn buys 6 tickets. To the nearest percent, find the probability of each outcome.
a. one ticket
b. exactly two tickets
c. exactly four tickets.
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Verified answer
25 winning tickets, 475 losing tickets.
Since b and c specify "exactly",
we'll take a to mean "one or more".
P(one or more wins) = 1 - P(zero)
P(zero) = 475 * 474 * 473 * 472 * 471 * 471 / (500 * 499 * 498 * 497 * 496 * 495) = 0.735
Hence P(one or more) = 0.265 or 26.5%
Exactly 2 could be:
W W L L L L =
25 * 24 * 475 * 474 * 473 * 472 / (500 * 499 * 498 * 497 * 496 * 495) = 0.001989
But the 2 winning tickets could be in
any of 6c2 = 15 pairs of positions among the 6 tickets,
so P(exactly 2) = 15 * the above = 0.0298, or roughly 3 %
Exactly 4 is calculated similarly:
25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 475 * 474 * 6c4 / (500 * 499 * 498 * 497 * 496 * 495) =
0.0000676
or 0%
This is comparable to the simpler, but less accurate formula:
15 * .05^4 * .95^2 = 0.0000846