You're playing a game where you defend your village from an orc invasion. There are 3 characters (elf, hobbit, or human) and 5 defense tools (magic, sword, shield, slingshot, or umbrella) to pick from.
If you randomly choose your character and tool, what is the probability that you won't be a hobbit or use an umbrella?
I'm not familiar with this.. I need help.
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Verified answer
You have 3 characters and 5 tools. So that's a total of 15 possible ways to pick a character and tool.
You asked for the probability that you "won't be a hobbit or use an umbrella".
As I interpret that, you only want to count pairs where you are an elf or human (not a hobbit) and you use anything but an umbrella (e.g. magic, sword, shield or slingshot).
You have 2 choices for a desired character and 4 choices for tool that isn't an umbrella. So that is 8 ways you could get a desirable pairing.
The probability is simply the ratio of favorable outcomes (8) to total possible outcomes (15).
Answer:
8/15
UPDATE:
My interpretation of your English phrase was as:
not(hobbit or umbrella)
That's equivalent to saying:
(not hobbit) and (not umbrella)
There are 2 non-hobbits characters and 4 non-umbrella tools = 8 pairings
Your phrase could also be interpreted as:
(not hobbit) or (umbrella)
In other words, you are okay if the character is not a hobbit (regardless of what tool they use) or you are okay with any character as long as they use an umbrella. I think that's how llaffer interpreted it and that's why he gets 11 favorable outcomes.
If a Hobbit defends himself against an Orc with an umbrella He doesn't need statistics, He needs a casket.
The probability of two ORed events (I'll call A and B) is:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
An example of this is to look at a deck of cards. The probability of a 5 or a heart. Adding the probability of a 5 and the probability of a heart adds the 5 of hearts twice so you have to subtract it out (the and).
So your probability is:
P(not a hobbit or use an umbrella) = P(not a hobbit) + P(use an umbrella) - P(not a hobbit and use an umbrella)
P(not a hobbit) = 2/3
P(use an umbrella) = 1/5
P(both) = 2/3 * 1/5 = 2/15
So the OR probability is:
P(not a hobbit or use an umbrella) = 2/3 + 1/5 - 2/15
P(not a hobbit or use an umbrella) = 10/15 + 3/15 - 2/15
P(not a hobbit or use an umbrella) = 11/15