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I think in 30 years' time, we'll see another degree C of temp rise from now, but I think that there are shorter term crises about to hit (a further financial crisis around sovereign debt, possibly involving significant deflation, and then peak oil) that will largely distract us. Political movement will continue to be slow and piecemeal. ETSs will be set up nationally or regionally but it will be another ten years before there is a global agreement of substance, by which time, it will be about five trillion dollars US more expensive to achieve sensible targets (costs to make a modest goal of 450 ppm rise by US$500 billion per year of inaction due to sunk costs in infrastructure and the need for a steeper rate of decline). These other crises will bankrupt the possibility of the more expensive options (bright green massive rollout of nuclear and/or renewable) and we'll still be lumped with large numbers of old dirty coal plants (including all those we're currently building), whose efficiency will improve and some will have CCS, but not enough to make a large difference. Auto efficiency will improve, as will agricultural practices. There will be a growing recognition that a lower meat diet has a big impact, though this will still be contentious in some circles. In any case the cost of meat will rise as demand for food gets much closer to supply (which will struggle to keep growing due to irregular precipitation, heat waves in grain belts, and soil degradation), meaning that it will cost much more to raise a kilo of beef than it currently does. Fish stocks will continue to be depleted (with a few more ocean reserves keeping the oceans alive, but only just), putting more strain on food stocks. Denialists with their heads in the sand will still be around, but will generally be old and largely ignored. There will be widespread pessimism and a sense of despair will be even more common than it is today. The blows to the global economy will cause a few more borderline states to fail, further stressing the resources of developed countries to deal with the fallout in the form of increased military actions and refugees. There will be more wars and rumours of wars as states squabble over access to resources (particularly oil reserves). Africa, with perhaps a couple of exceptions will fall even further behind the rest of the world and will be regularly wracked by drought. There will be further stratification between the haves and the have nots as the haves ensure their continued access to necessary resources. Green parties will continue to gradually improve in many countries and will participate in some more coalition governments, though more countries will face political instability and governments will fall more regularly. And historians will condemn the period between the 70s and the naughties as extremely decadent and short-sighted, filled with missed opportunities.

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We wil do nothing until the effects are apparent, so apparent that the reactionary right is cowed into silence. It may be direct effects on the populace, it may be crippling international economic pressure.

The key question is: when will the first world feel the effects and when will we begin to act?

My gut tells me it will be a chaotic shift. It will go from indeterminate to really bad in short order. Over a period of a few years rain patterns will shift and grain production will collapse. Over a period of a few years ocean fisheries will collapse.

Only then will we act with the necessary force and urgency. We will realize we started too late and there will be a massive push for geoengineering to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. But it will be too late to avoid the worst.

10 years? 20 years? 50 years? Hard to say. With population increasing exponentially and environmental decline continuing unabated I think the trends are going to intersect sooner rather than later.

The Earth is millions of years old. Way more than 90% of all species that have ever existed are gone and dead. WE DIDN'T do IT!! Did we? Figure the math. We have been around what 100k yrs or so? and only involved in Heavy industry for 100 plus years. Did man destroy all those species? No. The earth has survived far more destructive things than man. Tidal waves, huge earth quakes, drought, cosmic ray bombardments, Sun Spot flares, huge impacts with comets or other bodies, the reversal of the Magnetic Poles themselves. And we think some Plastic BAGS, and car exhaust is going to change the climates of a planetary body? Temps go up, they go down. Sure you do what you can to conserve and do your part. But there should never be a planetary TAX on people that is controlled by one group. WHY? First, AL GORES laughable movie has been found to have untrue "facts" in it. He refuses to answer or debate his critics and recently turned off a Mic of one person challenging his speech. He has constantly used more electricity in his mansions in TN and now CA than you or I ever could. Perhaps the most telling thing of this farce is the the behaviors of the loudest voices for taking your tax dollars. They want to artificially skyrocket your utility rates to force you into not using anything. Nobody elected them GOD. The former head of the IPCC that met in Copenhagen recently, shows us what hypocrites they are. Rajendra Pachauri Chairman of the IPCC has flown over 443, 500 miles supposedly on important "climate" business. He has spewed more exhaust and carbon into the air than 10,000 of us could if we all drove rusted Chevy Novas. He once in the middle of this debate over the climate, flew from NY to Delhi INDIA just to watch a damn PRACTICE CRICKET MATCH. These are the types of people trying to tell you how to live and that YOU should sacrifice and pay huge utility bills.

10 years from now, the average annual GTA will be 0.1C to 0.2C less than it currently is.

20 years from now, the average annual GTA will be 0.2C to 0.4C less than it currently is.

30 years from now, the average annual GTA will depend on whether or not this cooling phase follows Mojib Latif's scenario or one of Don Easterbrook's scenarios.. The GTA could be anywhere from about 0.6C less to about 0.2C more than it currently is.

If we throw money away on "a concerted effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions", we'll just impoverish a lot people... And perhaps kill quite a few people in Easterbrook's worst case scenario.

In ten years nations will still be arguing about what to do.

In twenty years we may finally agree on action

In thirty years we will begin wishing we had stopped arguing forty years ago.

In forty years, those who build weapons will become much richer

We must make fossil fuels an undesirable energy choice. We must educate woman and reduce the global population through birth control. We must once again manufacture goods that are reparable and not designed for obsolescence and disposal.

"how much of an impact will they have"

That is a tough one because depends on whether or not we get a real global agreement to do something. The longer we wait the less impact our efforts will have on climate change and a greater effort will be required. If we actually manage to agree soon I think we still have a chance to duck the bullet but we will certainly be grazed by it. I believe time is becoming very critical.

I really don't know at this point. I thought the USA would surely implement some sort of climate bill this year, but at this point it looks like it's not going to happen for several more years. And the USA is the weak link in the chain. With the USA unable to commit to significant emissions reductions, it's going to be hard to make any progress at international climate conferences. Likewise Australia has put off their proposed cap and trade system until at least 2012.

In 10 years, I think every major industrial country (and China) will have some sort of cap and trade or carbon tax system in place. Europe's already got one, as do various US states and Candian provinces. I think the systems which are not yet in place will ramp up slowly, without particularly aggressive emissions reductions targets. Then in 20-30 years, as the consequences of climate change become more obvious, I think the systems will be modified to make the emissions reductions much steeper and more costly. We'll regret not having taken action earlier. I just hope it's not too little too late.

I think we will see a painfully slow shift towards sustainable policies, as even people like [fill in your own examples] find it impossible to maintain their denial.

We will not "resign ourselves" to living with the consequences, because the consequences won't let us.

Some things I would hope for; sequestration that works, for one. A good route to cellulosic ethanol or some other form of whole plant biofuel. An end to the ridiculous subsidy for corn ethanol. Maybe genetically modified algae (Exxon and Venter, as well as others, are already working on this). A major shift to nuclear and/or solar, depending on how the economics work out over the next decade. (I would hope for, but wouldn't get, an end to knee-jerk opposition to nuclear). The economics of large-scale wind will become clear, one way or the other.

One gloomy prediction: large-scale coal liquefaction, implying increase in CO2 output and other undesirables per gigawatt hour.

I do think that there will be more robust measures implemented. As has been stated, BC is the first example in North America that actually works. It has been stated by those in power in the province that they do know that they are the so called 'guinea pigs' for this type of action and that they hope that their demonstration will show other western companies that yes, indeed it can work. I see more of a drive to renewable energy sources, improvements on those renewable energy sources, improvements in production, improvements in automobiles as well as greater transit use and more hybrid and electric cars.

In ten years the PDO cool phase in conjunction with reduced solar activity and subsequent cooler global temperatures will have silenced "most" global warming advocates.

In twenty years, there will be much hardship in much of third world from crop loss associated with shorter growing seasons, there will be much more CO2 generated by the human population to compensate for the dramatic shift to a cooler global climate. A few scientists will still cling to the AGW theory and will be called deniers and outcasts.

In thirty years the PDO will shift to a warm state and solar activity will increase again, global temperatures will begin increasing and the AGW theory will gain acceptance again.

Also:

I was right about the Arctic Sea Ice.

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